HK COVID-19 Daily Report: Day 259 — November 30, 2020 | C19 Deaths in BC

B.C. got its updated numbers today… sort of. More data correction with respect to Fraser Health, and 277 previously unaccounted-for cases that should’ve been counted between Nov 18th and 26th. It’s a fun challenge trying to incorporate that without wrecking the integrity of the data.

Of course, what’s really important is what’s going on now, not what happened a week or two ago… but it’d be nice to consider all of this data reliably, and I doubt we’ve seen the end of these corrections.

Corrections or not, what happened two weeks ago is more important than it sounds, because it’s those new cases back then that today unfortunately translate to hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths.

Looking at today’s big picture, here’s what it looks like: The lifestyle changes imposed upon us might be making a difference, as far as new cases is concerned. The last three days were surprisingly not as drastic as a pessimist might have expected… and maybe we can hope it’s the start of a trend.

Unfortunately, the trailing pattern to cases is, as per above, hospitalizations… and deaths, which seem to trail new cases by a period of about 10–14 days. That makes sense; for those whose course through this disease is a difficult one, it generally doesn’t happen all at once.

What we’re seeing now is the end-result of the spike in cases that led to those new orders being imposed and then being tightened a few days later. Those in charge understand well the implications, and that’s with a medical system that isn’t yet busting at the seams. So, what have we seen recently?

Almost 100 people have died of C19 in B.C. in the last eight days. Before that, it took 48 days for the previous 100 deaths to add up. And before that, it was 140 days. To summarize, in British Columbia:

May 19th to Oct 5th: 101 deaths (140 days)

Oct 6th to Nov 22nd: 101 deaths (48 days)

Nov 23rd to Nov 30th: 98 deaths (8 days)

That’s not a great trend… because if it were to keep up at that pace, we’d have over 300 new deaths by the weekend. Fortunately, that’s not going to happen, but this is a little taste of what it looks like when things go from bad to worse to downright scary.

It’s a little bit promising that the new case counts are starting to drop, but we are far from being able to say we’ve turned any sort of corner. Just take a deep breath and stick with doing the right thing… and we’ll see what this week brings.

Follow & Discuss on Facebook

Originally published at https://kemeny.ca on December 1, 2020.

--

--

--

Covid-19 graphs and analysis with personal reflections | Posted and discussed on facebook.com/kemeny.ca | Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada | kemeny.ca

Love podcasts or audiobooks? Learn on the go with our new app.

Recommended from Medium

US exceeds 20 million Covid-19 cases

An explanation of how the COVID-19 vaccine was developed so quickly

How Should We Be Reacting to the Coronavirus Pandemic?

New Test to Detect Neutralizing Antibodies against Corona virus

Why Vaccine Boosters May Not Solve the Mutating Coronavirus Problem

Big data in healthcare: the ethical problem and its solution

What’s the Evidence on Face Masks? What You Heard Was Probably Wrong

Coronavirus: India begins repatriating citizens from the Gulf

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store
Horatio Kemeny

Horatio Kemeny

Covid-19 graphs and analysis with personal reflections | Posted and discussed on facebook.com/kemeny.ca | Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada | kemeny.ca

More from Medium

What is Post-Pneumonectomy Syndrome? My life with PPS.

It’s Time to go Touch Grass: A Brief History of a 20-Something and her Parasocial Relationships.

An introduction to the IDA Board

Are Your Wagons Circling Or Rolling On?